The current rules based international order is not an empire, it is therefore unlike any previous 'empire' and it is not apt to compare it to an empire. We've never enjoyed anything like what we currently have before. We went from zero to one and should analyse it accordingly.
Good point, the U.S. is unlike previous empires (or to your point: one could debate whether it should be called an empire). The question remains whether its power relative to its competitors will follow the arc of an empire. Do you have any favorite writers/thinkers on the idea of 'zero to one' and how it could play out differently than other empires historically?
Thank you, Frederik. This is a near-impossible subject to make a cogent point on in any number of words. Despite that, you hit a home run in a short article.
Oct 20, 2023·edited Oct 20, 2023Liked by Frederik Gieschen
The irony is that the founders of the United States intended to create a Republic of states, not an empire, but the system they devised was so successful that we indeed did become an empire, not by conquest but by example (at first) and through military might only later. I do think that our civilization is in decline, perhaps irreversibly, but the genius of the founders may provide the seed for rebirth in the future.
Oct 20, 2023·edited Oct 20, 2023Liked by Frederik Gieschen
If you enjoyed the essay, you might like reading Arnold Toynbee's A Study of History, and particularly his challenge-response framework of thinking about civilizations. Happy to share some annotations if you are interested
When comparing our current epoch to Roman history , I've thought of us being after the Republic and at the beginning of the Empire. We've "won" and things are starting to get a little silly but bringing down such a technological / financial / military advantage will take centuries …and there has to be a strong nearby opponent willing to bring us down which may be the case for Europe but seems less likely for the USA.
Yeah, that's one possible scenario, a "second age" analogous to how Glubb separated the Roman Republic from the later Roman empire. I should have touched on that in the piece.
Yes, there is plenty of worrying signals that the US is close to the peak as the dominant power.
It is important to recognize and understand those symptoms. To find their root causes...
My questions are: What are the problems that, if not fixed, will cause the US decline? How do we fix them?
For me two of the biggest problems are:
Inequality - we have passed the point where inequality breeds social conflict. There is no strong country without a healthy and numerous middle-class.
Education - the only thing that levels the playing field, and provides equality of opportunities. We need to fix, improve, evolve the education system.
Lots of issues, perhaps worth its own piece. Dalio has done great work collecting data and, to your point, education is one of the markers that has declined dangerously.
This was a great read.
However I think the premise is not apt.
The current rules based international order is not an empire, it is therefore unlike any previous 'empire' and it is not apt to compare it to an empire. We've never enjoyed anything like what we currently have before. We went from zero to one and should analyse it accordingly.
Good point, the U.S. is unlike previous empires (or to your point: one could debate whether it should be called an empire). The question remains whether its power relative to its competitors will follow the arc of an empire. Do you have any favorite writers/thinkers on the idea of 'zero to one' and how it could play out differently than other empires historically?
Thank you, Frederik. This is a near-impossible subject to make a cogent point on in any number of words. Despite that, you hit a home run in a short article.
Thank you, John!
The irony is that the founders of the United States intended to create a Republic of states, not an empire, but the system they devised was so successful that we indeed did become an empire, not by conquest but by example (at first) and through military might only later. I do think that our civilization is in decline, perhaps irreversibly, but the genius of the founders may provide the seed for rebirth in the future.
Indeed, there is hope that the lessons learned from the past will allow us to break from its patterns.
If you enjoyed the essay, you might like reading Arnold Toynbee's A Study of History, and particularly his challenge-response framework of thinking about civilizations. Happy to share some annotations if you are interested
Thank you, I'll check it out. 12 volumes!
there are two abridged versions of the full volumes. a slog but erudite and well written.
keep up the great work, your writing is fantastic and truly enjoy reading your pieces.
When comparing our current epoch to Roman history , I've thought of us being after the Republic and at the beginning of the Empire. We've "won" and things are starting to get a little silly but bringing down such a technological / financial / military advantage will take centuries …and there has to be a strong nearby opponent willing to bring us down which may be the case for Europe but seems less likely for the USA.
Yeah, that's one possible scenario, a "second age" analogous to how Glubb separated the Roman Republic from the later Roman empire. I should have touched on that in the piece.
A thought-provoking piece - thank you Frederik.
GRreat stuff, Frederik! 💚 🥃
Thanks, Liberty!
Excellent article!
Yes, there is plenty of worrying signals that the US is close to the peak as the dominant power.
It is important to recognize and understand those symptoms. To find their root causes...
My questions are: What are the problems that, if not fixed, will cause the US decline? How do we fix them?
For me two of the biggest problems are:
Inequality - we have passed the point where inequality breeds social conflict. There is no strong country without a healthy and numerous middle-class.
Education - the only thing that levels the playing field, and provides equality of opportunities. We need to fix, improve, evolve the education system.
Lots of issues, perhaps worth its own piece. Dalio has done great work collecting data and, to your point, education is one of the markers that has declined dangerously.
That's true, it could happen faster than we expect.