Stanley Druckenmiller is Taking a Break (Maybe You Should, Too?)

“The next 4-5 years are going to be tailored to the skill set that worked for me in the 80s and 90s. Which was all sorts of macro chaos."

Hi all,

This past week I watched Stanley Druckenmiller speak at the Ira Sohn Conference. He was interviewed by John Collison of Stripe and you can watch the video of the conversation here. I thought it was a fantastic chat. However, I’m not surprised that the headlines on CNBC and Bloomberg focused on his bearish comments and missed pretty much every nugget.

The following are my notes of the conversation. I also posted a thread with highlights:

Frederik Gieschen @NeckarValue

Stanley Druckenmiller spoke with @collision at the Sohn Conference this week. The headlines were about his bearishness, that he expects the bear to continue. True. But that's missing all of the best insights from his chat.

Another helpful thread with notes and figures is here.

---

• Yes, he’s still bearish

• Streaks: taking the temperature

• “Sizing is 70-80% of the equation”

• The importance of taking a break

• Passion is his work ethic

• We’re operating without a precedent: remain open-minded

• Be aware of your biases

• Why macro traders tend to be pessimists

• How traders get into trouble

• Tracking technical analysts

• The game of trading has sped up: 'Invest first, investigate later'

• Advice to young traders

• Changing his mind on possibility of a crisis?

• Shorting housing in ‘06

• Inflation: gold or bitcoin?

• Long energy: ‘not a classic Duquesne play’ (anymore)

---

Disclaimer: I write for entertainment purposes only. This commentary reflects a personal opinion, is not investment advice, and should not be relied on to make investment decisions. The views reflected in this commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Do your own work and seek your own financial, tax, and legal advice before making any investment decisions.

---

Yes, he’s still bearish

Let’s get this out of the way. Yes, he’s still bearish.

“My best guess is that we're six months into a bear market that has some room to run. For those tactically trading it's possible the first leg of that has ended. But I think it's highly, highly probable that the bear market has a ways to run.”

Why? History suggests to him that the Fed will not be able to engineer a soft landing.